KARACHI: The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has announced that its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will meet on Monday, May 5, 2025, to decide on the country’s monetary policy, according to a statement released by the central bank on Wednesday.

Following the meeting, the SBP will publish the Monetary Policy Statement via a press release the same day.

Brokerage firm Arif Habib Limited (AHL) anticipates that the central bank will lower the key policy rate by 50 basis points, bringing it down to 11.5%.

Previously, in its March 10 meeting, the MPC had kept the interest rate unchanged at 12%.

During that session, the committee observed that February 2025 inflation figures were lower than anticipated, primarily driven by declines in food and energy prices.

However, the MPC also emphasized the risks posed by the ongoing volatility in these categories, noting that core inflation remains elevated and persistent. Any rebound in food or energy prices could potentially reverse the disinflation trend, it warned.

AHL stated in its analysis that the existing disinflationary trend, along with sufficient room in real interest rates, provides an opportunity for a cautious reduction in the policy rate to aid economic recovery without destabilizing the broader macroeconomic framework.