Major energy companies like BP, Chevron, ExxonMobil, Shell, and TotalEnergies are under pressure to borrow billions or reduce share buybacks to maintain shareholder payouts, analysts report. Following more than two years of record profits driven by the Ukraine war and post-pandemic economic recovery, the sector is now facing declining crude oil prices. Benchmark crude dropped below $70 a barrel, its lowest since late 2021, significantly impacting refining profits and future earnings.

These companies have distributed over $272 billion in dividends and share repurchases since 2022, nearly double the usual rate. However, falling oil prices and weak refining margins are expected to challenge profitability in the coming quarters. Some analysts, including RBC Capital Markets’ Biraj Borkhataria, warn that 2025 could be a challenging year for the oil sector due to the current market trends.